My friend Joshua from Sun has predicted that “2008 will be the year that client Java starts taking market share from Flash”. This is a pretty bold prediction reminding me of when I used to hear this same sort of statement about Desktop Linux… “1999 will be the year of Desktop Linux”.
Don’t get me wrong… I love Desktop Linux. Been using it since about 1993. And I love Java. Been using it since 1996. But lets be honest about the reality of client Java, desktop Linux, anything that touches the mass consumer space. It has to just work. I’m thankful that Ubuntu and the Consumer JRE are headed this direction. But Flex and Flash are there today! Flash just works. So much so that in the first nine months, Flash Player 9 reached 84% adoption in the US and is likely well beyond 90% currently. That is a platform you can rely on. One you can build on today. Tons of consumer Flex applications have already been deployed. And tons more are not visible because they are still being built or behind the corporate firewall.
So to my friend Joshua and his pals at Sun: Keep up the good work. Seriously! I’m excited about where you are going!
And to the people building Rich Internet Applications: As JD says, “You can ship with Flash.” Not in 2008, but today.
5 Comments
I completely agree. Flash beats Java when it comes to installed base of runtimes, but Java isn’t far behind. We have Sun’s version of Java on 62% of computers out there (92% if we count the older MS JVM), and that number is growing by 40million people a month. But the reason I’m so excited is that we have a lot of technologies and initiatives coming together next year that will make Java in the browser a great platform to build on. Not just the Consumer JRE, but also new libraries and tools. And of course the Java FX Script language. I see the new FX initiatives as part of a larger shift from straight HTML apps to Rich Internet Applications. Some will be Flash, some AJAX, some Java, and of course most will have some mixture of the three. Competition is good for developers and consumers. It’s going to be an exciting world. A few years from now we will look back at the web circa 2007 and think how primitive it is. This is a great time to be a client developer.
Quickstarter is not available on non-Windows platforms. Now that means it will continue to be slow on Linux desktops. Though I’m a big fan of Open-Source, I’d suggest RIA developers to go with Flex & Flash rather than Java for the simple fact that Flash player starts on Linux almost as fast as it does on Windows. But Java will not.
What is the Quickstarter? I don’t think there is such a think with Flash Player. Flash applications should start-up in nearly the exact same amount of time on all platforms.
-James
Quickstarter is a feature included in Consumer JRE aimed at making Java start faster on Windows platforms. This feature is not available on non-windows platforms. Yes, flash does start fast on non-windows platforms too. That is why I suggest that RIA developers must use it instead of Java applets.
Chandru,
Ahhh… Yes. I was confused. Sorry. I thought you were talking about Flash having a Quickstarter. I think you are right. Last I heard the Quickstarter for the Consumer JRE isn’t available on anything except Windows. Which makes for a different experience between different platforms. This is something Flash has been able to avoid quite well. Flash is Flash is Flash. No matter what platform the experience is the same.
-James
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[...] previously discussed, my friend Joshua from Sun recently blogged about how the consumer JRE will take market share from [...]
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